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Tropical disturbances show better organization than the Caribbean; forecast to soon turn into Tropical Storm Bonnie – Orlando Sentinel

Tropical disturbances show better organization than the Caribbean;  forecast to soon turn into Tropical Storm Bonnie - Orlando Sentinel
Written by boustamohamed31

A tropical disturbance in the Caribbean showed better organization on Wednesday afternoon and could soon be classified as Tropical Storm Bonnie, according to the National Hurricane Center.

“Visible high-resolution satellite imagery suggests that the system may be trying to close a center south of the ABC Islands, but surface observations are not yet very convincing,” wrote Richard Pash, a senior hurricane specialist at the NHC. “Radar images from Curacao also do not yet show a specific center. The system can make the transition to a tropical cyclone at any time.

A national aircraft for ocean and atmospheric hurricanes Hunter investigated the system on Wednesday afternoon, but did not find it organized enough to project the disturbance as a tropical storm. Forecasts call for the storm to intensify slightly, but there is no strong intensification until this weekend, as it approaches the southwestern Caribbean, where the system could become the first hurricane of the season.

A recommendation from the National Hurricane Center from 20:00 on Wednesday said that by Thursday morning there will probably be heavy rains and winds with tropical storms for the Windward Islands and parts of northern Venezuela and northern Colombia.

The system is located about 55 miles west-southwest of Curacao, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, moving west at 21 mph, at the 20:00 update. Although the system remains disorganized, hurricane experts suspect that this may change in the next 12 hours.

“One of the reasons the system hasn’t been able to shut down so far is because of the very fast speed,” said Eric Blake of the NHC. But models show that the disturbance stabilizes in the evening. The system must then hold the gain for two days. It could jump back into force by Friday, Blake said.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for Trinidad and Tobago; Grenada and its dependencies and parts of the Colombian coast. As it continues west, the system is expected to be near or above Nicaragua on Friday night.

The system has winds with the force of tropical storms, extending up to 70 miles from the center of the system. If it is called, it will be Tropical Storm Bonnie. The NHC gives it a 90% chance of forming over the next five days.

“The system is projected to cross … near Colombia’s Guajira Peninsula early Thursday and over the southwestern Caribbean later Thursday and Friday,” the NHC said.

Meteorologists are also monitoring two other disturbances with a chance of becoming a tropical system.

An area of ​​concern has increased rains and thunderstorms at night and over northwestern Gulf of Mexico. More development is possible, but at the moment the system remains disorganized. The NHC gives it a 40% chance of becoming a tropical system over the next two to five days as it slowly moves west across the northern Gulf of Mexico and toward Texas. It is expected to move inland to Texas on Thursday.

A Hurricane Hunter aircraft from the Air Force Reserve sent for investigation showed that the system was poorly organized.

“Some slow development is still possible and it could turn into a short-lived tropical depression near the coast before turning northwest and moving inland over Texas later on Thursday. Regardless of the development, heavy rainfall will be possible on parts of the Texas coast in the next few days, “said the NHC.

In addition, a tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean causes unorganized rains and thunderstorms. The wave is expected to come into contact with another tropical wave later this week and may develop. The NHC gave the wave a 10% chance of becoming depressed over the next two days and a 30% chance over the next five days.

If any of the systems develop, it will be the second system of the season after tropical storm Alex, which rained nearly a meter of rain over parts of Florida earlier this month.

After Bonnie, the next two names will be Colin and Daniel.

A tropical system can be called a tropical depression without rising to the status of a tropical storm. It does not receive a name until the system can withstand winds of 39 mph and is not called a hurricane until it can withstand winds of 74 mph.

The 2022 season lasts from June 1 to November. 30 is projected to be another abnormal year for storms after the 30 so-called storms of 2020 and 21 of 2021.

Jpedersen@orlandosentinel.com

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